Living the metamorphosis – from an industrial society to whatever is emerging…
Notes and comments related to scenario planning and similar forecasting methods
How much I promote scenario planning as a crucial tool for organizations I can't ignore the fact that an effective scenario planning process requires both skills, time, effort, and an organization open to higher level of thinking. Are there alternatives to discuss uncertainties and open a manager's mind? Could we do that by e. g … Continue reading Book circle instead of scenario planning?
We are now living through an era of fundamental uncertainty. People are dying and it is a major test of our society’s structures. Some of them might even break badly. Maybe some of them have already. In this uncertain and scary time, the vast majority of post corona articles are of course focused on risks. … Continue reading The importance of positive post corona scenarios
Looking back on what I wrote about some time ago I found a text I wrote in 2005 about how the European project might crash. The context then was the French riots which sent an echo throughout Europe. I often find it interesting to read foreigners who observe and comment on your own behavior. In Peter Schwartz’s … Continue reading The future of Europe – a short repost
Scenario planning is rapidly on the rise as one of the most important strategic tools. This awakening have slowly been going on for a while but the global uncertainties caused by the financial crisis and global economic recession have been speeding up the process. Since the 1960:s the value of scenario planning have been that … Continue reading Scenario planning in fashion
Since I use this example in my scenario planning education almost every day I thought it might be appropriate to remind you of this scenario published by Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy in their article Plotting Your Scenarios in the book Learning from the Future (eds Fahey and Randall). It is said to have been … Continue reading Future of the American Automotive industry
What about the future of the automotive industry? It doesn't look good from an American (or Swedish) horizon, but where is all this going and how are we going to transport ourselves tomorrow?? Yesterday I held a speech at a local conference of entrepreneurship. As usual I talked about scenario planning and it's virtues of … Continue reading Automotive industry and the future of mobility
Coming back from vacation sieving through the mailbox I found an article where scenario planning was mentioned in an interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the very interesting book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"(Amazon UK). / "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (Amazon US). Even if I … Continue reading Taleb and the risk of scenario planning
Yesterday I got a newsletter from Spira Rekrytering (newsletter), founded by a friend of mine. Interestingly enough it contained short piece of advice from Magnus Lindqvist, a consultant in business intelligence and trend spotting. Förr i tiden, nör organisationer hade långa och tröga beslutsprocesser (vilket, tyvörr, fortfarande vissa har) så var scenarioanalysen verktyget man arbetade … Continue reading Scenario planning vs trend spotting