How much I promote scenario planning as a crucial tool for organizations I can't ignore the fact that an effective scenario planning process requires both skills, time, effort, and an organization open to higher level of thinking. Are there alternatives to discuss uncertainties and open a manager's mind? Could we do that by e. g … Continue reading Book circle instead of scenario planning?
In order to meet a complex crisis you need to forecast the second, third or even fourth order consequences. The Futures Wheel is a tool for doing exactly that.
OK, now we are in a situation we have been talking about in our speeches and scenario projects for decades. A virus by the name of COVID-19 (a version of a Coronavirus) is spreading and is threatening to turn into a pandemic. And it really seems to shake up the system. The problem for me … Continue reading Futures Wheel analyzing COVID-19 consequences
Forget about predictions. Focus on signals. Look back to see forward. Uncover patterns. Create a community. [...] At its best, futures thinking is not about predicting the future; rather, it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and … Continue reading Marina Gorbis on: ”Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist”
Laurent Haug quoted Ethan Zuckerman's point which is really worth repeating in forecasting and futurist circles. Since I am, at least partly, finding myself backing a bit to my original turf of technology forecasting this is a good reminder of a rule of thumb that I actually used as an argument for the future success … Continue reading Porn, activism and technology forecasting
A couple of weeks ago I noted an increasing pattern on Google Trends when it came to Canada and searches for the word future. This trend seems to continue even this year and peeks more than before... And it seems to be unique to Canada! I guess it is some kind of cultural phenomenon. Are … Continue reading What is it with Canada and the future?
I got a mail yesterday promoting a new site called Future Scanner. It happens now and then that people finding my blog also want to use it to promote new things. As reader of this blog notice I am a bit skeptical to go somebody else's errands. This time it took me some minutes testing … Continue reading Future Scanner – A promising future oriented digg
Inspired by this post in Google Blogoscoped (found via 43 Folders) and the statements that people are predictable I got reminded of the power of Google Trends. A service that let anyone look into the gathered statistics from probably the single largest information hub in the world. When the service was announced I sat for … Continue reading Google trends and the state of the Western World
The other day a friend unexpectedly referred to Fermi problems (attributed to the famous physicist Enrico Fermi). I am the one who once (in ancient times) studied mathematics and physics and he is a marketing /advertising guy so I was a bit surprised. When realizing in what way he used the notion of Fermi problems … Continue reading Forecasting and Fermi problems