What can we learn from Asimov’s Foundation trilogy?

The other weekend I reread Asimov's Foundation trilogy, one of the brilliant books that might have influenced me to work within the area of foresight. In these times it might be appropriate to use one of the major SF novels of all times to reframe the situation. I quote here from the first chapter when … Continue reading What can we learn from Asimov’s Foundation trilogy?

Nine areas of change, which are “rewinding” our society (to the Middle Ages)?

Since we can trace the birth of many of our defining concept of this society back to the end of the middle ages, why not try to mirror what is happening today in how the world looked like then? Here is X things that I have collected which sometimes seems to be rewinded: Organizing The decline of the nation state as the dominant organizing principle Hierarchical structures are challenged by the open spaces and market way of organizing things - innovation Knowledge and world view Increasingly relativistic view of knowledge - broadcasting model is challenged and is losing it's politically and socially defining qualities The decline of the idea of a better future - the idea of progress The text-based knowledge society is challenged by a world of verbally told stories and images Breakdown of the quantitative perspective and re-emergence of a qualitative world view and geographical perspective - death of distance, valuing the people and the experience of a specific place without so much romancing about how far away it is from home' Re-emergence of the risk society - the world out there is a dangerous place and we need to be protected Value creation Re-emergence of a non money value exchange systems - open source, make, prosumtion Break down of the immaterial ownership logic, where   

Future of the American Automotive industry

Since I use this example in my scenario planning education almost every day I thought it might be appropriate to remind you of this scenario published by Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy in their article Plotting Your Scenarios in the book Learning from the Future (eds Fahey and Randall). It is said to have been … Continue reading Future of the American Automotive industry

Automotive industry and the future of mobility

What about the future of the automotive industry? It doesn't look good from an American (or Swedish) horizon, but where is all this going and how are we going to transport ourselves tomorrow?? Yesterday I held a speech at a local conference of entrepreneurship. As usual I talked about scenario planning and it's virtues of … Continue reading Automotive industry and the future of mobility

The future of Internet – the next 5000 days

Kevin Kelly say something like this in the speech: "The Internet's development is really amazing, but strangely enough, we are not amazed?" Do we really understand what is going on? The last time I wrote about Kevin Kelly in this forum was when he had been writing an interesting article in Wired about the future … Continue reading The future of Internet – the next 5000 days

Taleb and the risk of scenario planning

Coming back from vacation sieving through the mailbox I found an article where scenario planning was mentioned in an interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the very interesting book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"(Amazon UK). / "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (Amazon US). Even if I … Continue reading Taleb and the risk of scenario planning

The future of newspapers

My home town Göteborg is currently host for the 61st World Newspaper Congress & 15th World Editors Forum with the main theme: Newspapers: A Multi-Media, Growth Business. To me, who is working with strategy, technology related forecasting and scenario planning, it feels really weird. When I look at how technology development and diffusion mix with … Continue reading The future of newspapers

Evolution of science porn and the declining relevance of science

Today scientific knowledge is more popular among the public than ever. It is only underscored with the success of the vast number of magazines popularizing science and the growing numbers of public science fairs popping up everywhere (e g here in Göteborg the science fair Vetenskapsfestivalen occured last week). The increased educational levels, indisputable leaps … Continue reading Evolution of science porn and the declining relevance of science

Porn, activism and technology forecasting

Laurent Haug quoted Ethan Zuckerman's point which is really worth repeating in forecasting and futurist circles. Since I am, at least partly, finding myself backing a bit to my original turf of technology forecasting this is a good reminder of a rule of thumb that I actually used as an argument for the future success … Continue reading Porn, activism and technology forecasting

LIFT08: Future and Asia

One of the highlights of LIFT08 was the Asia track. First on stage was Marc Laperrouza who talked about the telecommunication situation in China. To summarize what I thought was most interesting (download PDF of presentation): 59% of the world's 2,5 billion mobile phone users are in developing countries - it is the first time … Continue reading LIFT08: Future and Asia