How much I promote scenario planning as a crucial tool for organizations I can't ignore the fact that an effective scenario planning process requires both skills, time, effort, and an organization open to higher level of thinking. Are there alternatives to discuss uncertainties and open a manager's mind? Could we do that by e. g … Continue reading Book circle instead of scenario planning?
In the 90:s we talked a lot about "The New Economy", an economy based on innovation, ideas and software rather than factories and mass production. With the burst of the IT-bubble that discussion ended abruptly and the expression "The New Economy" died over night. The problem we have when we think about the future is … Continue reading The new economy is intangible
When we have been so enormously successful in analyzing the virus and developing a vaccine during 2020, why do we still struggle with the pandemic? The answer is politics and our current social organization. In the FT article Lessons from a year of Covid Yuval Harari argues that the increased technical capabilities to master … Continue reading Does technical development turn everything into politics?
We are now living through an era of fundamental uncertainty. People are dying and it is a major test of our society’s structures. Some of them might even break badly. Maybe some of them have already. In this uncertain and scary time, the vast majority of post corona articles are of course focused on risks. … Continue reading The importance of positive post corona scenarios
In order to meet a complex crisis you need to forecast the second, third or even fourth order consequences. The Futures Wheel is a tool for doing exactly that.
In the West we have for some time been aware that we live in a world of unsustainable growth and excessive consumption. When the resources are limited it will come to a point where it stresses the whole system. And we don’t have to be rocket scientists to see that the systems around us are … Continue reading Are we now approaching THE global reset?
OK, now we are in a situation we have been talking about in our speeches and scenario projects for decades. A virus by the name of COVID-19 (a version of a Coronavirus) is spreading and is threatening to turn into a pandemic. And it really seems to shake up the system. The problem for me … Continue reading Futures Wheel analyzing COVID-19 consequences
Most observers of global political development would probably just nod at this. There definitely seems to be a pattern: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Victor Orbán to just mention the most obvious ones. But recently two Swedish researchers went one step further and provides us with numbers, or at least … Continue reading Researchers show that global democracy really is slipping
How do you approach a really hairy problem like developing a General AI? Well, nature solved it the evolutionary way ie by means of competition. So why not use the model of competition? Another problem is defining "general" in general AI, so why not just compete with the real thing? And why start with humans, … Continue reading Approaching General AI challenge with an Animal-AI Olympics
Juan Enriquez is setting the light on the deeper difficult ethical challenges technology development is causing when reality is changing faster than our ethical rules.