Scenario planning is rapidly on the rise as one of the most important strategic tools. This awakening have slowly been going on for a while but the global uncertainties caused by the financial crisis and global economic recession have been speeding up the process. Since the 1960:s the value of scenario planning have been that [...]
Posts under ‘Scenario thinking’
Future of the American Automotive industry
Since I use this example in my scenario planning education almost every day I thought it might be appropriate to remind you of this scenario published by Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy in their article Plotting Your Scenarios in the book Learning from the Future (eds Fahey and Randall). It is said to have been [...]
Automotive industry and the future of mobility
What about the future of the automotive industry? It doesn’t look good from an American (or Swedish) horizon, but where is all this going and how are we going to transport ourselves tomorrow?? Yesterday I held a speech at a local conference of entrepreneurship. As usual I talked about scenario planning and it’s virtues of [...]
Taleb and the risk of scenario planning
Coming back from vacation a sieving through the mail box I found an article where scenario planning was mentioned in an interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the very interesting book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”(Amazon UK). / “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” (Amazon US). Even [...]
Scenario planning vs trend spotting
Yesterday I got a newsletter from Spira Rekrytering (newsletter), founded by a friend of mine. Interestingly enough it contained short piece of advice from Magnus Lindqvist, a consultant in business intelligence and trend spotting. Förr i tiden, när organisationer hade långa och tröga beslutsprocesser (vilket, tyvärr, fortfarande vissa har) så var scenarioanalysen verktyget man arbetade [...]
Does foresight renders the future irrelevant?
For the last year or so most of my involvements in foresight activities in organizations seems to have different results than before. More often than not they are putting the focus back to fundamental issues about internal organizational issues. In some sense the results tell me: “Don’t fiddle around asking questions about the future! Focus [...]
Forecasting and Fermi problems
The other day a friend unexpectedly referred to Fermi problems (attributed to the famous physicist Enrico Fermi). I am the one who once (in ancient times) studied mathematics and physics and he is a marketing /advertising guy so I was a bit surprised. When realizing in what way he used the notion of Fermi problems [...]
Michael Raynor falls in the gap
Update: This post is adjusted since I attributed some of the answers to Guy Kawasaki and not Michel Raynor who actually answered the questions. Today Art Hutchinson pointed me to Guy Kawasakis blog and the post on Michael Raynor’s book The Strategy Paradox called How to Change the World: Ten Questions With Michael Raynor. It [...]
